With the 2024-25 Premier League season reaching its final stages, the battle to avoid relegation is tighter than it has been in over a decade. Historically, 36 points has been seen as the safety benchmark, but this season could require more. After 34 rounds, the team in 18th place is projected to finish on 38 points, meaning 39 points may be needed to guarantee survival – the highest threshold in 15 years.
Historical survival benchmarks
Since the Premier League adopted a 20-team format in 1995-96, the average number of points required to finish 18th – just above the drop zone – stands at 35.53. In each of the past nine seasons, teams earning 36 or more points have avoided relegation. However, that number has not always been safe: West Ham hold the unwanted record of being relegated with 42 points in the 2002-03 season.
The likelihood of survival increases significantly with every additional point. According to historical data, 38 points have ensured safety in 80% of seasons, 40 points in 90%, and 43 or more in every single 38-game campaign. Only once has a team survived with fewer than 30 points in recent history – until the 2023-24 season, when 27 points was enough.
Recent trends and anomalies
The past two seasons have seen unusually low survival totals. In 2023-24, 27 points secured safety, while in 2022-23, just 26 points was sufficient – both due to struggles by newly promoted sides. Before that, only once since 1995-96 had fewer than 30 points kept a team up: in 2020-21, 29 points was enough.
Looking at the full 30-season 38-game era, 36 points has kept a team up in 60% of seasons, rising to 86.67% with 39 points. The highest survival total was 50 points in the 42-game 1992-93 season, while the lowest in the modern era was 26 points in 2024-25. As the relegation battle intensifies, clubs at the bottom know that every point could prove decisive.